Several indicators which can be used to forecast Eurozone Q3 GDP were published this week:
1/ Belgian economy grew 0.3% QoQ in Q3 (strongest since Q1 2011).
2/ Spanish GDP increased 0.1% QoQ in Q3 (first rebound after nine quarters of contraction).
3/ French consumer spending unexpectedly fell in September and in Q3.
4/ German real retail sales unexpectedly declined for a second straight month in September.
As a consequence, we can build our scenarios with a cautious approach regarding French and German contributions. By taking into account the weight of each economy in the euro area (Germany: 27%; France: 21%; Italy: 18%; Spain: 12% and Belgium: 5%), we get the following forecasts:
| Growth Forecasts | |||
| Scenario | Pessimistic | Central | Optimistic |
| Germany | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| France | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Italy | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Spain (1st publication) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Belgium (1st publication) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Others | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Growth Contributions | |||
| Scenario | Pessimistic | Central | Optimistic |
| Germany | 0.054% | 0.081% | 0.105% |
| France | 0.021% | 0.042% | 0.063% |
| Italy | -0.018% | 0.000% | 0.018% |
| Spain (1st publication) | 0.012% | 0.012% | 0.012% |
| Belgium (1st publication) | 0.015% | 0.015% | 0.015% |
| Others | 0.000% | 0.017% | 0.034% |
| Total | 0.084% | 0.0167% | 0.0230% |
| Total (rounded) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
In the central scenario, based on the main central banks’ expectations, Eurozone growth could reach 0.2% in Q3 2013.
